9 FEB 2009

Today, the volumes of glodyne in BSE surged to 1.1 lakh shares while in NSE it was below 5000. This might be an all time high as far as trading volume on BSE is concerned. Perhaps it is due to the positive report from Reliancemoney. the stock was up 5 % on both the exchanges. 

I think once the entire floating stock in tghe hands of small investors passes into the hands of strategic long term investors, then we will start seeing reports in the media and the stock will start appreciating fast due to low2 floating stock,

180 X 1.05exp45 = 1617

Just as the price had continuously hit lower ckt for many days at a stretch, it might now hit the upper ckt continuously for many days. It just needs 45 upper ckts for it to reach 1700 which is the true price of the scrip in june 2010.

Maybe the mgmt colluded in hammering the price to increase their holdings . when they will need to go for a public issue, they will definitely ramp up the price.

CONSPIRACY OF SILENCE

Right now there seems to be a conspiracy of silence as far as glodyne is concerned. It  has declared excellent q3 results, but except for a small box item in ET, I have not seen the news anywhere in the print media. the result is available at many sites on the web, but searching for it in the print media is like searching for a needle in a haystack. Perhaps that is why  the operators in the scrip are able to frighten small investors into selling their holdings , by relentlessly hammering the price of the scrip . The trading volume in the scrip is mostly below 5000 in both the exchanges.

I  think action in the scrip will start once Reliancemoney or telefolio comes out with a buy report on the scrip. Only then will people become aware of its result and will start buying the scrip.

PATIENCE

Despitethe fact that Glodyne has come out which such fantastic results, its price keeps on falling. I think this is basically because of irrational fears in the minds of investors regarding  pledging of promoters quota shares .Moreover looking at the volumes, there might well be some unscrupulous brokers or investors pushing the price down by buying and selling  among themselves, so as to frighten the retail investors into dumping their shares. If a seasoned investor like me can feel so frightened, then what can we expect from poor retail investors  in the current environment.

It might also be the final bear charge before the tide turns due to a positive budget. Once the tide turns, it takes just 30 sessions of 5 % growth in price , to more than quadruple the price.

If glodyne declares a dividend of 20 % and a BV of 130 + in september, then that can take the scrip to a price of 800.

Triggers :

FY 09 EPs of 70 or mre.

Buyout of some company in the SOC space.

Dividend of 20 %.

Positive guidance for FY 2010.

Riding out such phases requires extreme patience and perseverance.

Riding out  this phase of a downturn in the market without selling your holdings in panic, requires lot of resilience and faith in yourself. Pray to God to provide you the necessary  strength.

4 feb 2009 : Glodyne vs ADSL

Allied digital is going down even though it runs both NOCs as well as SOCs. Glodyne at present is only present in NOCs. It is on the lookout for a suitable acquisition in the area of SOCs. The demand and margins in running SOCs are very high. The fact that glodyne is able to generate high profts despite not having the full range of RIMS infrastructure speaks volumes for its management quality and efficiency.

At present RIMS forms a small component of its IMS business.As it increases the RIMS component and as it gets into running SOCs, it is but natural that its margins will increase.

Clients also prefer providers whose core competence lies in the IMS area , rather than diversified software companies getting into this business because of the high margins.

Glodyne is a company run by technocrats. It also has an application software division which in combination with its IMS capabilities, ncreases the business prospects.

So, finally, keeping all these aspects in mind, I again say that if I were to have onlly one company in my portfolio, in this difficult business environment, it would certainly be Glodyne.......

At present Glodyne seems to be consolidating around 175. Once it reenters the 20 % price band, it will take  just 5 sessions for it to double to 350. Trigger could be some +ve news of an order or some acquisition abroad in the SOC space.

3 Feb 2009

Glodyne seems to be going through  a consolidation phase. It is trying to stabilize around 175.  Once its price band changes to 20 % , then it will take just 4 days for it to reach 310. Subsequently it can reach 600 in just 15 days. 

I think the pullback to 600 will also be as sharp as the downfall was, once the annual results are out, hopefully with some positive news of it taking over a company in the SOC space and once the new government is in place .

Anyhow I should never lose sight of my target of retaining just 15000 shares and selling the balance for a realization of around 40 to 50 lakhs. The 15000 shares that I retain can then be sold later for a net realization of at least 3 to 4 crores.